{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7594264-402a-458a-ad15-7905187a965e", "symbol": "600616", "name": "Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.688, "architecture_energy": 42.138, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.187, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.08, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 19.27, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.6, "downward_expansion": 69.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.046667, 4.005717, 4.226818, 4.463159 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.14, "trend_reference": 4.787191, "distance_from_trend": -0.135192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.441427, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.090062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265957, "excess_performance": -0.222754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34477530, "relative_activity": 1.121974, "balance": 0.30633, "dry_up": 1.246755, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068738, "annualized_volatility": 0.240358, "from_high_reference": -0.335474, "from_low_reference": 0.115401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.787191, "fair_value_reference": 5.441427, "structural_low": 3.711671, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.013662, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.011524, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.170139, "worst_return": -0.137161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.061538, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.044782, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.128421, "worst_return": -0.239444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.106838, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025541, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.245409, "worst_return": -0.302127, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -73.073069, "energy": 89.745135, "activity_lines": [ 3.911246, 4.10777, 4.444022, 4.686305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.02, "volume": 40765739, "typical_volume": 31175518.25, "trend": 4.924858, "fair_value": 5.495389, "relative_strength": -19.719806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.846994, "energy": 75.088634, "activity_lines": [ 3.929752, 4.056575, 4.378233, 4.625239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.8, "volume": 38253375, "typical_volume": 30484143.65, "trend": 4.869524, "fair_value": 5.476408, "relative_strength": -24.448035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.064581, "energy": 68.096275, "activity_lines": [ 3.887273, 3.982653, 4.298301, 4.552668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.17, "volume": 39751117, "typical_volume": 30859306.05, "trend": 4.827858, "fair_value": 5.459045, "relative_strength": -16.865194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.89696, "energy": 56.398189, "activity_lines": [ 3.983957, 3.992548, 4.261131, 4.507537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.14, "volume": 34477530, "typical_volume": 30729335.95, "trend": 4.787191, "fair_value": 5.441427, "relative_strength": -19.090062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.688387, "energy": 42.138402, "activity_lines": [ 4.046667, 4.005717, 4.226818, 4.463159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }