{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e759b803-e397-4a00-9106-ded0f11dad35", "symbol": "SBTCC", "name": "AMINA Bitcoin ETP CHF hedged", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.352, "architecture_energy": 45.831, "architecture_maturity": 70.878, "architecture_confidence": 57.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.55, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 19.43, "deceleration": 66.43, "rotation_down": 41.22, "downward_expansion": 67.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.981667, 3.952927, 4.170898, 4.283958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.0155, "trend_reference": 4.481033, "distance_from_trend": -0.10389, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.197203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.751839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049698, "excess_performance": -0.132582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10389, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117692, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.432701, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3100, "relative_activity": 0.992349, "balance": 1.432701, "dry_up": 0.31347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050343, "annualized_volatility": 0.394176, "from_high_reference": -0.508747, "from_low_reference": 0.056711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.481033, "fair_value_reference": 5.197203, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022014, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.015182, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.409193, "worst_return": -0.238463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.31412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.328641, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.636776, "worst_return": -0.299456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.407223, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.321629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.406213, "worst_return": -0.245054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06589, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095642, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054629, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.0105, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14002.25, "trend": 2.116723, "fair_value": 2.861056, "relative_strength": 10.116716, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"fair_value": 5.163985, "relative_strength": -38.445122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.709781, "energy": 67.007045, "activity_lines": [ 3.929833, 4.007, 4.286107, 4.403303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.045, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3884.15, "trend": 4.60445, "fair_value": 5.175354, "relative_strength": -35.583167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.886469, "energy": 55.277469, "activity_lines": [ 3.972167, 3.982045, 4.251264, 4.363737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.895, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3904.15, "trend": 4.542617, "fair_value": 5.185908, "relative_strength": -36.949534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.832692, "energy": 48.889699, "activity_lines": [ 3.96, 3.947745, 4.203719, 4.317966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0155, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 3123.9, "trend": 4.481033, "fair_value": 5.197203, "relative_strength": -34.751839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.351971, "energy": 45.8315, "activity_lines": [ 3.981667, 3.952927, 4.170898, 4.283958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }