{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e75ea01a-05d1-4095-a70f-1c541b3b4259", "symbol": "XSDR", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Health Care Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.05, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.469, "architecture_energy": 10.746, "architecture_maturity": 18.732, "architecture_confidence": 50.313, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.62, "rotation_up": 31.4, "upward_expansion": 32.44, "deceleration": 65.64, "rotation_down": 28.92, "downward_expansion": 18.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 19746.133333, 19771.145455, 19565.685714, 19537.425806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19873.0, "trend_reference": 19645.55, "distance_from_trend": 0.011578, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18901.399489, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.297198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012154, "excess_performance": -0.063389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011578, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003549, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018038, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.223612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1042, "relative_activity": 1.517513, "balance": 1.223612, "dry_up": 1.312532, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028209, "annualized_volatility": 0.184126, "from_high_reference": -0.082876, "from_low_reference": 0.183903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19645.55, "fair_value_reference": 18901.399489, "structural_low": 18008.615234, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015551, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013373, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.049504, "worst_return": -0.030932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031463, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093523, "worst_return": -0.092702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055318, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022348, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160664, "worst_return": 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19658.983333, "fair_value": 18871.489233, "relative_strength": -4.444231, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.083135, "energy": 35.044661, "activity_lines": [ 19832.033333, 19721.963636, 19483.528571, 19524.163441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19654.0, "volume": 1211, "typical_volume": 991.95, "trend": 19662.45, "fair_value": 18887.880258, "relative_strength": -6.085551, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.222479, "energy": 9.105057, "activity_lines": [ 19738.133333, 19729.1, 19515.397619, 19523.841935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19873.0, "volume": 1042, "typical_volume": 686.65, "trend": 19645.55, "fair_value": 18901.399489, "relative_strength": -5.297198, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.469448, "energy": 10.745607, "activity_lines": [ 19746.133333, 19771.145455, 19565.685714, 19537.425806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }