{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e75f033a-05c5-499d-a1ef-8d962422dfe1", "symbol": "603456", "name": "Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 19.651, "architecture_energy": 26.723, "architecture_maturity": 27.696, "architecture_confidence": 48.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.23, "rotation_up": 45.61, "upward_expansion": 34.69, "deceleration": 46.6, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 43.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.074667, 14.526389, 14.101537, 14.61255 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.450001, "trend_reference": 15.577044, "distance_from_trend": 0.056041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.860698, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.700284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098136, "excess_performance": -0.054932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024358, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159871990, "relative_activity": 1.937694, "balance": 0.869744, "dry_up": 1.800141, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071258, "annualized_volatility": 0.378106, "from_high_reference": -0.260674, "from_low_reference": 0.358382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.577044, "fair_value_reference": 16.860698, "structural_low": 12.11, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.040672, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.024791, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.325872, "worst_return": -0.188418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052655, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.028302, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.40722, "worst_return": -0.264874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.242103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.234854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244525, "worst_return": 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14.77, "volume": 151188838, "typical_volume": 62839454.5, "trend": 16.014377, "fair_value": 17.097913, "relative_strength": -15.230403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.775111, "energy": 29.965123, "activity_lines": [ 13.996667, 13.448158, 13.990896, 14.859185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.46, "volume": 188506695, "typical_volume": 70506853.1, "trend": 15.888377, "fair_value": 17.029257, "relative_strength": -11.584012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.764821, "energy": 28.748473, "activity_lines": [ 14.273333, 13.674797, 13.959413, 14.758903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.98, "volume": 150015542, "typical_volume": 74471928.5, "trend": 15.74471, "fair_value": 16.965067, "relative_strength": -15.28795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.960635, "energy": 28.718913, "activity_lines": [ 14.278, 13.798176, 13.897359, 14.635782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.56, "volume": 95697786, "typical_volume": 77000214.9, "trend": 15.625377, "fair_value": 16.904342, "relative_strength": -11.819941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.395949, "energy": 19.636403, "activity_lines": [ 14.418667, 14.007123, 13.904067, 14.559349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 159871990, "typical_volume": 82506315.3, "trend": 15.577044, "fair_value": 16.860698, "relative_strength": -2.700284, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.650753, "energy": 26.722625, "activity_lines": [ 15.074667, 14.526389, 14.101537, 14.61255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }