{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7660f43-1e97-42d9-a8f3-6e30ad6ad52a", "symbol": "000599", "name": "Qingdao Doublestar Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.483, "architecture_energy": 41.97, "architecture_maturity": 93.205, "architecture_confidence": 92.938, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.85, "rotation_up": 27.51, "upward_expansion": 19.28, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 40.42, "downward_expansion": 69.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.638, 4.570727, 4.83981, 5.164882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 5.605, "distance_from_trend": -0.127565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.854231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.723822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298422, "excess_performance": -0.305822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099261, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007369, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77896463, "relative_activity": 1.187953, "balance": 0.605728, "dry_up": 1.12482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075507, "annualized_volatility": 0.382587, "from_high_reference": -0.419929, "from_low_reference": 0.178313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.605, "fair_value_reference": 4.854231, "structural_low": 4.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016429, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.030029, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.457766, "worst_return": -0.138514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045021, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.077024, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.406504, "worst_return": -0.173986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045131, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.121272, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.348765, "worst_return": -0.117166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147343, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.419333, 4.615273, 5.015762, 5.372989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 76302865, "typical_volume": 67907559.45, "trend": 5.718333, "fair_value": 4.849103, "relative_strength": -25.259407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.73207, "energy": 65.00513, "activity_lines": [ 4.378, 4.52, 4.914619, 5.27914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.72, "volume": 62951671, "typical_volume": 65595059.1, "trend": 5.662667, "fair_value": 4.851026, "relative_strength": -16.721617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.460597, "energy": 58.105303, "activity_lines": [ 4.493333, 4.522364, 4.864238, 5.214731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 77896463, "typical_volume": 65572001.3, "trend": 5.605, "fair_value": 4.854231, "relative_strength": -17.723822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.48255, "energy": 41.970225, "activity_lines": [ 4.638, 4.570727, 4.83981, 5.164882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }