{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e769d4cb-5c72-4007-824a-81cb4c5ddb9d", "symbol": "HELE", "name": "Helen of Troy Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 90.933, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.536, "architecture_energy": 46.853, "architecture_maturity": 56.226, "architecture_confidence": 86.383, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.41, "rotation_up": 52.11, "upward_expansion": 79.62, "deceleration": 60.48, "rotation_down": 24.96, "downward_expansion": 6.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.488, 28.119273, 26.705, 24.584946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.77, "trend_reference": 22.116, "distance_from_trend": 0.346084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.752115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.493295, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.015072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.586887, "excess_performance": 0.399433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.346084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.493295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.256893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.586887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1927678, "relative_activity": 0.65531, "balance": 1.105617, "dry_up": 0.738643, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113777, "annualized_volatility": 0.667673, "from_high_reference": -0.029661, "from_low_reference": 1.149458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.116, "fair_value_reference": 58.752115, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041761, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.015702, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.061579, "worst_return": -0.147555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.171555, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.14055, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.034878, "worst_return": -0.250621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.147029, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.304734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.126222, "worst_return": -0.559183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 2388624, "typical_volume": 3046793.75, "trend": 21.536167, "fair_value": 60.060962, "relative_strength": 21.56525, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.549407, "energy": 44.405479, "activity_lines": [ 27.895333, 27.642182, 25.702429, 23.675677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.63, "volume": 1715136, "typical_volume": 2989019.5, "trend": 21.770167, "fair_value": 59.36, "relative_strength": 17.262997, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.509304, "energy": 38.751772, "activity_lines": [ 27.81, 27.704182, 26.128381, 24.068828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.77, "volume": 1927678, "typical_volume": 2941625.6, "trend": 22.116, "fair_value": 58.752115, "relative_strength": 20.015072, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.535501, "energy": 46.852897, "activity_lines": [ 28.488, 28.119273, 26.705, 24.584946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }