{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e76b963d-22c3-4baa-82df-77b504dc0149", "symbol": "ALMIN", "name": "MINT Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.226, "architecture_energy": 22.839, "architecture_maturity": 20.831, "architecture_confidence": 68.512, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.39, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 57.9, "rotation_down": 52.42, "downward_expansion": 66.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.170667, 5.217455, 5.194286, 5.221763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 5.279667, "distance_from_trend": -0.022666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.291753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.430331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113402, "excess_performance": -0.166713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10776, "relative_activity": 0.425646, "balance": 1.188848, "dry_up": 0.450304, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03876, "annualized_volatility": 0.184003, "from_high_reference": -0.256484, "from_low_reference": 0.081761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.279667, "fair_value_reference": 4.291753, "structural_low": 4.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013245, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.020887, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.215054, "worst_return": -0.12069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043771, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.064516, "worst_return": -0.125364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018844, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.228374, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.219291, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272401, "worst_return": 0.166181, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.221505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058394, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.8, "volume": 7932, "typical_volume": 13023.45, "trend": 3.081667, "fair_value": 5.577481, "relative_strength": -6.947261, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"energy": 15.87772, "activity_lines": [ 5.292, 5.262909, 5.206905, 5.251161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.16, "volume": 13051, "typical_volume": 25645.8, "trend": 5.299667, "fair_value": 4.261112, "relative_strength": -8.521206, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.08232, "energy": 12.816879, "activity_lines": [ 5.237333, 5.250909, 5.202952, 5.241849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.12, "volume": 14158, "typical_volume": 25260.3, "trend": 5.291667, "fair_value": 4.276369, "relative_strength": -10.295226, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.580883, "energy": 21.250959, "activity_lines": [ 5.190667, 5.229818, 5.196238, 5.230258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 10776, "typical_volume": 25316.8, "trend": 5.279667, "fair_value": 4.291753, "relative_strength": -11.430331, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.225844, "energy": 22.838783, "activity_lines": [ 5.170667, 5.217455, 5.194286, 5.221763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }