{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e76ea042-45ac-4f40-839e-66dac15589e9", "symbol": "4946", "name": "Cayenne Entertainment Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.501, "architecture_energy": 83.162, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.867, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.03, "rotation_up": 9.07, "upward_expansion": 20.61, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 75.43, "downward_expansion": 93.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.446666, 87.376363, 95.550952, 102.232688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 81.0, "trend_reference": 109.743333, "distance_from_trend": -0.261914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 88.833346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.220454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330579, "excess_performance": -0.771951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.261914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032189, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 65.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.028997, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.036555, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.739597, "worst_return": -0.369266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.107246, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.094159, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.340909, "worst_return": -0.28218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.192369, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 4.274585, "worst_return": -0.311927, 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67.330935, "activity_lines": [ 99.066666, 102.318181, 106.197619, 110.554839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.0, "volume": 162258, "typical_volume": 396971.95, "trend": 112.273333, "fair_value": 87.950018, "relative_strength": -50.587709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.952577, "energy": 84.858789, "activity_lines": [ 92.386666, 98.332727, 103.28, 108.565161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 152225, "typical_volume": 336015.1, "trend": 111.086667, "fair_value": 88.196852, "relative_strength": -55.576832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.008805, "energy": 93.007248, "activity_lines": [ 83.906667, 92.72, 99.667143, 105.895914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.699997, "volume": 186056, "typical_volume": 311582.0, "trend": 110.393333, "fair_value": 88.51736, "relative_strength": -47.725221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.930887, "energy": 84.487919, "activity_lines": [ 81.933332, 90.127272, 97.633333, 104.129032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 81.0, "volume": 103361, "typical_volume": 302178.85, "trend": 109.743333, "fair_value": 88.833346, "relative_strength": -50.220454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.500962, "energy": 83.161617, "activity_lines": [ 80.446666, 87.376363, 95.550952, 102.232688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }