{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e774e056-1cfe-4806-a1c4-001a7a54df64", "symbol": "ROM", "name": "RomReal Limited", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.539, "architecture_energy": 41.684, "architecture_maturity": 21.312, "architecture_confidence": 56.631, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.82, "rotation_up": 62.83, "upward_expansion": 53.48, "deceleration": 28.05, "rotation_down": 17.41, "downward_expansion": 14.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.792, 2.725091, 2.691333, 2.700946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 2.700667, "distance_from_trend": 0.066403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.488817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.976634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152, "excess_performance": 0.027006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114218, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.038234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.038234, "dry_up": 0.103137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065705, "annualized_volatility": 0.470199, "from_high_reference": -0.121951, "from_low_reference": 0.358491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.700667, "fair_value_reference": 2.488817, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.023158, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.010479, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.311321, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010529, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.141935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039604, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.014485, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.515789, "worst_return": -0.320806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.179856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"relative_strength": -1.98321, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.685898, "energy": 9.666397, "activity_lines": [ 2.650667, 2.640727, 2.660095, 2.679011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10557.05, "trend": 2.686667, "fair_value": 2.47824, "relative_strength": -4.339895, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.767696, "energy": 7.379129, "activity_lines": [ 2.7, 2.661455, 2.666762, 2.683871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.76, "volume": 1827, "typical_volume": 9935.8, "trend": 2.688667, "fair_value": 2.483817, "relative_strength": -4.725348, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.056493, "energy": 15.094097, "activity_lines": [ 2.734667, 2.682909, 2.673048, 2.688602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9935.8, "trend": 2.700667, "fair_value": 2.488817, "relative_strength": -0.976634, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.538648, "energy": 41.684235, "activity_lines": [ 2.792, 2.725091, 2.691333, 2.700946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }