{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e777a8ea-c9d6-4d87-a313-97e088b9beab", "symbol": "DOCT", "name": "L&G Healthcare Technology & Innovation ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.281, "architecture_energy": 81.412, "architecture_maturity": 19.378, "architecture_confidence": 76.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.83, "rotation_up": 72.52, "upward_expansion": 89.94, "deceleration": 49.88, "rotation_down": 16.45, "downward_expansion": 16.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.135467, 13.929418, 13.322333, 13.000976 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.586, "trend_reference": 12.7698, "distance_from_trend": 0.142226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.148365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.387655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.158171, "excess_performance": -0.012721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013877, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.159052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9233, "relative_activity": 0.649829, "balance": 1.159052, "dry_up": 0.810034, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030714, "annualized_volatility": 0.205164, "from_high_reference": -0.002598, "from_low_reference": 0.43 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.7698, "fair_value_reference": 11.148365, "structural_low": 11.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.016726, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023713, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.112745, "worst_return": -0.127086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034973, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.073384, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2204, "worst_return": -0.200913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014428, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.077346, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.095211, "worst_return": -0.106136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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13.276982, 12.746171, 12.638387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.918, "volume": 7239, "typical_volume": 14957.85, "trend": 12.656933, "fair_value": 11.090083, "relative_strength": 0.592806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.711186, "energy": 89.120415, "activity_lines": [ 13.897067, 13.463055, 12.885057, 12.722267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.928, "volume": 11368, "typical_volume": 14576.9, "trend": 12.689667, "fair_value": 11.105981, "relative_strength": 0.700723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.051614, "energy": 87.652734, "activity_lines": [ 13.958133, 13.615455, 13.018914, 12.804271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.884, "volume": 18197, "typical_volume": 14075.35, "trend": 12.7314, "fair_value": 11.123686, "relative_strength": -0.443852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.926708, "energy": 80.67499, "activity_lines": [ 13.932533, 13.722655, 13.142076, 12.881325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.586, "volume": 9233, "typical_volume": 14208.35, "trend": 12.7698, "fair_value": 11.148365, "relative_strength": 1.387655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.28073, "energy": 81.41169, "activity_lines": [ 14.135467, 13.929418, 13.322333, 13.000976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }