{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e77a18cb-1572-438c-9cdd-4f20032f5f06", "symbol": "XLIP", "name": "Invesco Industrials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.153, "architecture_energy": 40.962, "architecture_maturity": 79.735, "architecture_confidence": 55.726, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 44.13, "upward_expansion": 66.96, "deceleration": 65.48, "rotation_down": 25.75, "downward_expansion": 16.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 75300.0, 75355.545455, 74014.333333, 72934.956989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 76165.0, "trend_reference": 71614.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.063544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58322.557692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.389918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089238, "excess_performance": 0.038003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053273, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041871, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.209574, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1575, "relative_activity": 2.222693, "balance": 1.209574, "dry_up": 1.496966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026849, "annualized_volatility": 0.140226, "from_high_reference": -0.01722, "from_low_reference": 0.254302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71614.333333, "fair_value_reference": 58322.557692, "structural_low": 66411.492188, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.001995, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.00186, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.083301, "worst_return": -0.068777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.020331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014982, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.08052, "worst_return": -0.064786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047048, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.023871, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.13787, "worst_return": -0.062493, 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76405.0, "volume": 774, "typical_volume": 610.75, "trend": 70983.666667, "fair_value": 57948.573718, "relative_strength": 5.360789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.755097, "energy": 62.179714, "activity_lines": [ 75697.333333, 75150.636364, 73464.47619, 72439.16129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73800.0, "volume": 1583, "typical_volume": 642.95, "trend": 71296.5, "fair_value": 58128.230769, "relative_strength": 0.543537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.337867, "energy": 39.279479, "activity_lines": [ 75013.0, 75065.181818, 73638.738095, 72620.860215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76165.0, "volume": 1575, "typical_volume": 708.6, "trend": 71614.333333, "fair_value": 58322.557692, "relative_strength": 3.389918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.152794, "energy": 40.961838, "activity_lines": [ 75300.0, 75355.545455, 74014.333333, 72934.956989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }