{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e77c0e63-10f2-41d0-b32c-4aa337d0dfe9", "symbol": "WEXU", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Ex USA ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.481, "architecture_energy": 80.35, "architecture_maturity": 35.845, "architecture_confidence": 82.625, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 71.69, "upward_expansion": 89.55, "deceleration": 48.08, "rotation_down": 16.44, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.911607, 13.791656, 13.631046, 13.468536 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.268, "trend_reference": 13.296503, "distance_from_trend": 0.073064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.537147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236701, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.612433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088595, "excess_performance": 0.023956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073064, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042516, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036124, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 326.07767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19875, "relative_activity": 11.799104, "balance": 326.07767, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016628, "annualized_volatility": 0.15777, "from_high_reference": -0.003631, "from_low_reference": 0.259112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.296503, "fair_value_reference": 11.537147, "structural_low": 12.2537, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004767, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028672, "worst_return": -0.010587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.048023, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007009, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.048023, "worst_return": 0.048023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076846, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 9.938, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 9.9931, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.6725, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 13.115837, "fair_value": 11.440864, "relative_strength": 5.412616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.498477, "energy": 65.544748, "activity_lines": [ 13.66366, 13.597709, 13.412265, 13.296004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5959, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 5.15, "trend": 13.15934, "fair_value": 11.46308, "relative_strength": 5.479806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.343285, "energy": 50.754245, "activity_lines": [ 13.649813, 13.608804, 13.446329, 13.326976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.6418, "volume": 6157, "typical_volume": 313.0, "trend": 13.19844, "fair_value": 11.485312, "relative_strength": 4.424225, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.190647, "energy": 53.546696, "activity_lines": [ 13.649633, 13.624718, 13.485068, 13.358102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8861, "volume": 7554, "typical_volume": 690.7, "trend": 13.243933, "fair_value": 11.509563, "relative_strength": 3.827056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.93605, "energy": 54.549963, "activity_lines": [ 13.730327, 13.677095, 13.543072, 13.402468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.268, "volume": 19875, "typical_volume": 1684.45, "trend": 13.296503, "fair_value": 11.537147, "relative_strength": 3.612433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.481222, "energy": 80.349703, "activity_lines": [ 13.911607, 13.791656, 13.631046, 13.468536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }