{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e77e72d7-90d1-4207-a924-df83b33a0727",
    "symbol": "UBUX",
    "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Quality Screened UCITS ETF hEUR acc",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.449,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.125,
    "architecture_energy": 68.118,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.363,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.264,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.46,
        "rotation_up": 59.79,
        "upward_expansion": 84.63,
        "deceleration": 65.56,
        "rotation_down": 26.83,
        "downward_expansion": 11.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        52.176953,
        51.061011
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 54.650002,
    "trend_reference": 49.876333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.09571,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 42.038846,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299988,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.730385,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.150042,
    "excess_performance": 0.03338,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09571,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035506,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.299988,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035089,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007304,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036087,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.150042,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.06101,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1204,
      "relative_activity": 0.966525,
      "balance": 1.06101,
      "dry_up": 2.630449,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019748,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.137409,
      "from_high_reference": -0.012111,
      "from_low_reference": 0.243883
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 49.876333,
      "fair_value_reference": 42.038846,
      "structural_low": 43.935001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": 0.015806,
        "positive_rate": 0.638889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.638889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006632,
        "regime_survival": 0.805556,
        "best_return": 0.069254,
        "worst_return": -0.067663,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.027005,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000434,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.145753,
        "worst_return": -0.097987,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.086137,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014102,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.1867,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.157014,
        "sufficient": false
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.0168,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
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          48.638333,
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          47.652365
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 51.02,
        "volume": 1005,
        "typical_volume": 1281.15,
        "trend": 47.658833,
        "fair_value": 40.335224,
        "relative_strength": 4.339134,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.332566,
        "energy": 82.561572,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 51.23,
        "volume": 1206,
        "typical_volume": 1289.7,
        "trend": 47.849833,
        "fair_value": 40.470064,
        "relative_strength": 5.160126,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.333357,
        "energy": 94.718343,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.391333,
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          48.241928,
          48.109096
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 51.950001,
        "volume": 623,
        "typical_volume": 1155.9,
        "trend": 48.026,
        "fair_value": 40.60641,
        "relative_strength": 2.840873,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.956648,
        "energy": 95.264558,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 51.950001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 934.35,
        "trend": 48.166166,
        "fair_value": 40.739006,
        "relative_strength": 3.626586,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.526648,
        "energy": 92.865182,
        "activity_lines": [
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          48.955333,
          48.626785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 52.810001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 907.2,
        "trend": 48.384833,
        "fair_value": 40.876795,
        "relative_strength": 4.460631,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.373036,
        "energy": 94.78454,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.078667,
          51.010091,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 51.380001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 803.35,
        "trend": 48.529333,
        "fair_value": 40.999295,
        "relative_strength": -2.205012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.175122,
        "energy": 84.980097,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.941334,
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          49.119624
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 52.740002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 802.6,
        "trend": 48.753833,
        "fair_value": 41.133718,
        "relative_strength": 0.523896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.717536,
        "energy": 81.523771,
        "activity_lines": [
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          50.011524,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 51.82,
        "volume": 3717,
        "typical_volume": 897.6,
        "trend": 48.895333,
        "fair_value": 41.25859,
        "relative_strength": 0.268177,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.260086,
        "energy": 63.952759,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.118001,
          51.837273,
          50.285167,
          49.589097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 53.349998,
        "volume": 19,
        "typical_volume": 878.3,
        "trend": 49.087,
        "fair_value": 41.395449,
        "relative_strength": 0.970712,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.32165,
        "energy": 68.448453,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.521333,
          52.199909,
          50.684048,
          49.876495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 52.77,
        "volume": 1563,
        "typical_volume": 895.6,
        "trend": 49.246833,
        "fair_value": 41.522885,
        "relative_strength": -0.275308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.406605,
        "energy": 65.061608,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.638,
          52.382728,
          51.002286,
          50.114108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 53.009998,
        "volume": 1306,
        "typical_volume": 922.05,
        "trend": 49.414333,
        "fair_value": 41.650128,
        "relative_strength": -0.572265,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.195708,
        "energy": 65.979951,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.837332,
          52.547818,
          51.319952,
          50.356892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 52.25,
        "volume": 4538,
        "typical_volume": 1148.2,
        "trend": 49.5395,
        "fair_value": 41.769327,
        "relative_strength": -1.816247,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.733099,
        "energy": 62.967193,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.674666,
          52.538545,
          51.542357,
          50.539839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 52.66,
        "volume": 6059,
        "typical_volume": 1282.45,
        "trend": 49.692333,
        "fair_value": 41.896186,
        "relative_strength": -1.829214,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.154922,
        "energy": 55.415575,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.681333,
          52.585272,
          51.78,
          50.741161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 54.650002,
        "volume": 1204,
        "typical_volume": 1245.7,
        "trend": 49.876333,
        "fair_value": 42.038846,
        "relative_strength": 0.730385,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.125471,
        "energy": 68.118231,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.295334,
          52.980909,
          52.176953,
          51.061011
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}