{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e783f400-8666-42a4-93e5-dc365feaf84d", "symbol": "DESA", "name": "Desarrollos Especiales de Sistemas de Anclaje, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.53, "architecture_energy": 47.75, "architecture_maturity": 26.534, "architecture_confidence": 79.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.16, "rotation_up": 66.3, "upward_expansion": 84.53, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 16.54, "downward_expansion": 6.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.167634, 23.704835, 22.648589, 21.919745 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 20.922097, "distance_from_trend": 0.156672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.503265, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.278267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.305388, "excess_performance": 0.180957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.560962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.305388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189, "relative_activity": 0.908654, "balance": 0.769231, "dry_up": 0.617788, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085255, "annualized_volatility": 0.516856, "from_high_reference": -0.135714, "from_low_reference": 0.593288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.922097, "fair_value_reference": 15.503265, "structural_low": 16.664972, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002402, "regime_survival": 0.690476, "best_return": 0.248485, "worst_return": -0.115789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.046261, "positive_rate": 0.9375, "directional_follow_through": 0.9375, "median_excess_return": 0.006886, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.367252, "worst_return": -0.052448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.096398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025454, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.578157, "worst_return": 0.017134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.251151, "energy": 55.9772, "activity_lines": [ 23.624258, 22.672497, 21.875879, 21.217484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.119083, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 305.7, "trend": 20.544667, "fair_value": 15.35427, "relative_strength": 9.572154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.233261, "energy": 70.223241, "activity_lines": [ 23.842307, 23.070063, 22.154857, 21.460264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 230.8, "trend": 20.733382, "fair_value": 15.428767, "relative_strength": 8.642303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.067352, "energy": 60.107524, "activity_lines": [ 24.146056, 23.425631, 22.413559, 21.696092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 189, "typical_volume": 208.0, "trend": 20.922097, "fair_value": 15.503265, "relative_strength": 6.278267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.530128, "energy": 47.7502, "activity_lines": [ 24.167634, 23.704835, 22.648589, 21.919745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }