{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e79ed5a4-046a-457a-835f-5fcbf6880073", "symbol": "ARIS", "name": "Ariston Holding N.V.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.552, "architecture_energy": 16.81, "architecture_maturity": 24.452, "architecture_confidence": 63.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.85, "rotation_up": 37.52, "upward_expansion": 30.61, "deceleration": 49.54, "rotation_down": 14.66, "downward_expansion": 41.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.696133, 3.608545, 3.556345, 3.656906 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.866, "trend_reference": 3.881869, "distance_from_trend": -0.004088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.313385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.855612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202995, "excess_performance": -0.373886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.234586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2016197, "relative_activity": 1.1412, "balance": 1.234586, "dry_up": 1.277466, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070919, "annualized_volatility": 0.460527, "from_high_reference": -0.30466, "from_low_reference": 0.24549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.881869, "fair_value_reference": 4.313385, "structural_low": 3.104, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046512, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.078979, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.264722, "worst_return": -0.109936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.162834, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.178729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24575, "worst_return": -0.339912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.229522, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.293158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071065, "worst_return": -0.333286, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119804, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.4813, "energy": 23.857483, "activity_lines": [ 3.553067, 3.459673, 3.517758, 3.698131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.622, "volume": 1199739, "typical_volume": 1703785.85, "trend": 3.91854, "fair_value": 4.35942, "relative_strength": -20.583843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.353385, "energy": 21.364366, "activity_lines": [ 3.5876, 3.497091, 3.521408, 3.677336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.63, "volume": 3684317, "typical_volume": 1755599.8, "trend": 3.894131, "fair_value": 4.334329, "relative_strength": -20.303931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.708095, "energy": 14.105479, "activity_lines": [ 3.605333, 3.535273, 3.527326, 3.658721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.866, "volume": 2016197, "typical_volume": 1766734.7, "trend": 3.881869, "fair_value": 4.313385, "relative_strength": -16.855612, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.551786, "energy": 16.809761, "activity_lines": [ 3.696133, 3.608545, 3.556345, 3.656906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }