{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7a0d34f-5bce-4a60-a470-9be75de24edb", "symbol": "MSFL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG MSFT DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.854, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.848, "architecture_energy": 43.35, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 64.9, "upward_expansion": 45.6, "deceleration": 40.66, "rotation_down": 19.01, "downward_expansion": 13.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.636667, 18.530545, 18.256619, 18.091355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.44, "trend_reference": 18.412, "distance_from_trend": 0.381708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.976817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.087876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.401653, "excess_performance": 0.214199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.381708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061025, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.299245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.350625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.401653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6700987, "relative_activity": 0.764423, "balance": 0.938296, "dry_up": 1.019494, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121322, "annualized_volatility": 0.836902, "from_high_reference": -0.295388, "from_low_reference": 0.963721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.412, "fair_value_reference": 23.976817, "structural_low": 12.955, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028934, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.31187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.331201, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": 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54.462409, "activity_lines": [ 16.187333, 17.515455, 17.677571, 18.382369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.05, "volume": 10703433, "typical_volume": 7685751.8, "trend": 19.73942, "fair_value": 24.186767, "relative_strength": -43.663192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.447136, "energy": 58.715685, "activity_lines": [ 15.745333, 17.114545, 17.525238, 18.12016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.62, "volume": 8190554, "typical_volume": 7945891.8, "trend": 19.369753, "fair_value": 24.115968, "relative_strength": -45.250433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.382525, "energy": 59.719438, "activity_lines": [ 15.549333, 16.702909, 17.34181, 17.854391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.27, "volume": 8504036, "typical_volume": 8109201.55, "trend": 18.994753, "fair_value": 24.051657, "relative_strength": -39.521852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.865394, "energy": 48.81696, "activity_lines": [ 15.772667, 16.466545, 17.230714, 17.654407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 5324052, "typical_volume": 8064467.4, "trend": 18.58078, "fair_value": 23.980098, "relative_strength": -41.396276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.973181, "energy": 35.982669, "activity_lines": [ 15.662, 16.090364, 17.027571, 17.41281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.11, "volume": 15218729, "typical_volume": 8611178.0, "trend": 18.45178, "fair_value": 23.965017, "relative_strength": -14.293458, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.165319, "energy": 7.217956, "activity_lines": [ 17.843333, 17.035636, 17.494429, 17.640502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.44, "volume": 6700987, "typical_volume": 8766067.6, "trend": 18.412, "fair_value": 23.976817, "relative_strength": -5.087876, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.848095, "energy": 43.349563, "activity_lines": [ 20.636667, 18.530545, 18.256619, 18.091355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }