{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7a1de3b-e3ae-4ad7-b5ad-3ecf59b6a0a3", "symbol": "HRL-F25", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) S&P 500", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.781, "architecture_energy": 63.019, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.817333, 26.533273, 672.872524, 1134.006731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.19, "trend_reference": 1664.189667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2212.67109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.826557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989128, "excess_performance": -1.018029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.071387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.742673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.312867, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1800913, "relative_activity": 1.747067, "balance": 3.312867, "dry_up": 0.884982, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.390924, "annualized_volatility": 6.347618, "from_high_reference": -0.98965, "from_low_reference": 0.071316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1664.189667, "fair_value_reference": 2212.67109, "structural_low": 25.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019361, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.017078, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.051678, "worst_return": -0.045074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.033265, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.065007, "worst_return": -0.098504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089021, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111916, "worst_return": -0.0399, "sufficient": false }, { 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26.174, 477.484727, 1253.775048, 1611.055613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.62, "volume": 697765, "typical_volume": 1049431.0, "trend": 1917.674333, "fair_value": 2249.289936, "relative_strength": -98.935593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993597, "energy": 78.674996, "activity_lines": [ 26.383333, 296.713636, 1090.897857, 1483.623333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.56, "volume": 584953, "typical_volume": 1060167.85, "trend": 1833.026333, "fair_value": 2236.979423, "relative_strength": -98.938584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.633609, "energy": 67.552959, "activity_lines": [ 26.49, 161.084, 939.945333, 1361.615957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.71, "volume": 565398, "typical_volume": 986413.85, "trend": 1748.816667, "fair_value": 2224.887821, "relative_strength": -98.875319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.226968, "energy": 66.908005, "activity_lines": [ 26.606667, 71.107818, 800.604429, 1245.079419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.19, "volume": 1800913, "typical_volume": 1030820.55, "trend": 1664.189667, "fair_value": 2212.67109, "relative_strength": -98.826557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.781455, "energy": 63.018723, "activity_lines": [ 26.817333, 26.533273, 672.872524, 1134.006731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }