{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7a1e48b-8dd6-4c89-8d3a-28fe61c54c0f", "symbol": "FLL", "name": "Full House Resorts Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.592, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.488, "architecture_energy": 38.277, "architecture_maturity": 5.142, "architecture_confidence": 71.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.91, "rotation_up": 14.77, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 53.64, "rotation_down": 60.26, "downward_expansion": 45.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.361333, 2.514727, 2.593214, 2.570473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.43, "trend_reference": 2.529333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.000769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.694255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084821, "excess_performance": -0.102632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 605521, "relative_activity": 0.783548, "balance": 0.32625, "dry_up": 0.749204, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1454, "annualized_volatility": 0.72791, "from_high_reference": -0.368831, "from_low_reference": 0.20297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.529333, "fair_value_reference": 4.000769, "structural_low": 2.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009443, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017916, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089202, "worst_return": -0.213855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069087, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.114228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.237935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.183246, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.167964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.042105, "worst_return": -0.395315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246285, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213855, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005618, "active": false 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 426534, "typical_volume": 759061.45, "trend": 2.542, "fair_value": 4.043526, "relative_strength": -23.319264, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.666541, "energy": 20.565913, "activity_lines": [ 2.502667, 2.635909, 2.646024, 2.598495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.21, "volume": 796250, "typical_volume": 764677.5, "trend": 2.532333, "fair_value": 4.01859, "relative_strength": -26.131437, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.614174, "energy": 31.195319, "activity_lines": [ 2.376, 2.551273, 2.60819, 2.577075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.43, "volume": 605521, "typical_volume": 772794.0, "trend": 2.529333, "fair_value": 4.000769, "relative_strength": -21.694255, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.487522, "energy": 38.276559, "activity_lines": [ 2.361333, 2.514727, 2.593214, 2.570473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }