{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7a2390a-0281-4cf4-aa69-52ea9da2d3e0", "symbol": "NST", "name": "Northern Star Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.449, "architecture_energy": 8.074, "architecture_maturity": 56.721, "architecture_confidence": 56.803, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.85, "rotation_up": 26.0, "upward_expansion": 23.03, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 31.09, "downward_expansion": 56.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.79, 20.677637, 20.591572, 21.235333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.700001, "trend_reference": 22.626177, "distance_from_trend": 0.003263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.456264, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300393, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.149942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145076, "excess_performance": -0.208782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26160394, "relative_activity": 1.004001, "balance": 0.812447, "dry_up": 0.891944, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082887, "annualized_volatility": 0.621091, "from_high_reference": -0.283908, "from_low_reference": 0.346845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.626177, "fair_value_reference": 17.456264, "structural_low": 17.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003577, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.041616, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.283269, "worst_return": -0.138609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044168, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.068109, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.459583, "worst_return": -0.088289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.117991, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.053786, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.627252, "worst_return": -0.090154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.406, 20.934221, 22.080047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.48, "volume": 19511008, "typical_volume": 30056401.85, "trend": 23.272171, "fair_value": 17.200968, "relative_strength": -9.752264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.04501, "energy": 21.638881, "activity_lines": [ 20.920667, 20.434545, 20.793493, 21.885655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.24, "volume": 18632088, "typical_volume": 29509309.15, "trend": 23.059844, "fair_value": 17.255127, "relative_strength": -15.344181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.161257, "energy": 27.070736, "activity_lines": [ 20.443333, 20.250182, 20.570952, 21.625515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.93, "volume": 24943712, "typical_volume": 29341352.45, "trend": 22.831173, "fair_value": 17.314303, "relative_strength": -12.383566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.467675, "energy": 28.700743, "activity_lines": [ 20.197333, 20.226182, 20.465524, 21.423589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.9, "volume": 23226240, "typical_volume": 28205369.75, "trend": 22.686802, "fair_value": 17.37548, "relative_strength": -14.818624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.264883, "energy": 35.462032, "activity_lines": [ 20.004, 20.207091, 20.390809, 21.234481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.700001, "volume": 26160394, "typical_volume": 26056134.65, "trend": 22.626177, "fair_value": 17.456264, "relative_strength": -6.149942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.449173, "energy": 8.074128, "activity_lines": [ 20.79, 20.677637, 20.591572, 21.235333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }