{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7a2e45f-030f-4608-9f19-a80ac289ee11", "symbol": "VR8", "name": "Vanadium Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.789, "architecture_energy": 76.544, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.838, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 38.8, "rotation_down": 70.41, "downward_expansion": 92.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012933, 0.013891, 0.015481, 0.016961 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.019167, "distance_from_trend": -0.373913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.034096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.648054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.788297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.373913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.648054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.527883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.162131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1742569, "relative_activity": 0.555342, "balance": 0.162131, "dry_up": 0.613306, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189103, "annualized_volatility": 0.908402, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019167, "fair_value_reference": 0.034096, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.002513, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.894737, "worst_return": -0.311111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.183325, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.483871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.180762, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.191068, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.703704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.016462, 0.017946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 2188923, "typical_volume": 3331735.0, "trend": 0.0195, "fair_value": 0.034468, "relative_strength": -52.289568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.822701, "energy": 76.213635, "activity_lines": [ 0.013533, 0.014491, 0.015943, 0.017445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 1742569, "typical_volume": 3137830.6, "trend": 0.019167, "fair_value": 0.034096, "relative_strength": -52.788297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.788538, "energy": 76.54441, "activity_lines": [ 0.012933, 0.013891, 0.015481, 0.016961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }