{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e7aa1275-c4b6-435a-a1ee-066016d54dcf",
    "symbol": "NTU",
    "name": "Northern Minerals Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 91.37,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -42.746,
    "architecture_energy": 20.18,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.294,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.754,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.48,
        "rotation_up": 21.39,
        "upward_expansion": 5.32,
        "deceleration": 45.05,
        "rotation_down": 48.17,
        "downward_expansion": 73.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.026067,
        0.026255,
        0.026462,
        0.026505
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.026,
    "trend_reference": 0.0272,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.044118,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.029147,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107983,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -21.181448,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.0,
    "excess_performance": -0.063706,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044118,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059908,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107983,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090389,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.211814,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044696,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.256533,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 73008759,
      "relative_activity": 0.68882,
      "balance": 4.256533,
      "dry_up": 0.714033,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.140533,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.473321,
      "from_high_reference": -0.682927,
      "from_low_reference": 0.181818
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.0272,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.029147,
      "structural_low": 0.022,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.027652,
        "positive_rate": 0.3,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.3,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051277,
        "regime_survival": 0.65,
        "best_return": 0.076923,
        "worst_return": -0.228571,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.138889,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.143171,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.62069,
        "worst_return": -0.285714,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.107843,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080644,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.382353,
        "worst_return": -0.3,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.294118,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.33353,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.051282,
        "worst_return": -0.295455,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.015625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.205882,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.038462,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.16,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.37931,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.228571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.192308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.096774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.103448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.142857,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.230769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.103448,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 6311003.55,
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      },
      {
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      },
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      {
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 107501790.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.025,
        "volume": 58243826,
        "typical_volume": 105169941.6,
        "trend": 0.0274,
        "fair_value": 0.029205,
        "relative_strength": -22.234192,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.60606,
        "energy": 16.428802,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0262,
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          0.026467,
          0.026596
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.026,
        "volume": 73008759,
        "typical_volume": 105991069.75,
        "trend": 0.0272,
        "fair_value": 0.029147,
        "relative_strength": -21.181448,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.746346,
        "energy": 20.179553,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}