{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7ab4d98-4190-4cd3-b79c-d05b6dcdc1b1", "symbol": "AMH2-B", "name": "Amhult 2 AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.886, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.291, "architecture_energy": 19.174, "architecture_maturity": 21.962, "architecture_confidence": 65.098, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.95, "rotation_up": 20.24, "upward_expansion": 12.49, "deceleration": 57.79, "rotation_down": 36.33, "downward_expansion": 60.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.666667, 58.618182, 59.028571, 59.249462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.0, "trend_reference": 59.716667, "distance_from_trend": -0.012001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.282051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.407081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048387, "excess_performance": -0.109881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011586, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2605, "relative_activity": 0.708583, "balance": 0.272535, "dry_up": 1.001537, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029335, "annualized_volatility": 0.158825, "from_high_reference": -0.085271, "from_low_reference": 0.063063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.716667, "fair_value_reference": 58.282051, "structural_low": 55.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.000269, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.102804, "worst_return": -0.102703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021706, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05126, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.093458, "worst_return": -0.118598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02751, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094135, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130841, "worst_return": -0.150649, "sufficient": true }, { 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59.081818, 59.383333, 59.683871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 58.5, "volume": 4708, "typical_volume": 4456.6, "trend": 60.0, "fair_value": 58.298077, "relative_strength": -12.320968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.33971, "energy": 44.608872, "activity_lines": [ 58.5, 58.9, 59.280952, 59.584946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.5, "volume": 4349, "typical_volume": 3820.75, "trend": 59.95, "fair_value": 58.294872, "relative_strength": -11.104971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.59919, "energy": 30.837372, "activity_lines": [ 58.5, 58.745455, 59.192857, 59.488172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.5, "volume": 975, "typical_volume": 3501.5, "trend": 59.916667, "fair_value": 58.294872, "relative_strength": -12.154872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.940557, "energy": 23.627494, "activity_lines": [ 58.566667, 58.627273, 59.116667, 59.394624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.5, "volume": 6799, "typical_volume": 3742.3, "trend": 59.833333, "fair_value": 58.282051, "relative_strength": -12.931214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.543009, "energy": 22.09067, "activity_lines": [ 58.566667, 58.563636, 59.047619, 59.303226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.0, "volume": 2605, "typical_volume": 3676.35, "trend": 59.716667, "fair_value": 58.282051, "relative_strength": -13.407081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.290744, "energy": 19.173981, "activity_lines": [ 58.666667, 58.618182, 59.028571, 59.249462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }