{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7ad0e54-0f41-4a22-bcc3-84cef293fc78", "symbol": "VOSYS", "name": "Vogiatzoglou Systems S.A.", "exchange": "ATH", "country": "GR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "GD.AT", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.659, "architecture_energy": 18.455, "architecture_maturity": 78.479, "architecture_confidence": 74.904, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.29, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 17.65, "deceleration": 42.07, "rotation_down": 29.92, "downward_expansion": 56.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.016667, 2.010364, 2.022, 2.035011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.03, "trend_reference": 2.059333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.165408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.049949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060185, "excess_performance": -0.236849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.12247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6501, "relative_activity": 1.221189, "balance": 1.12247, "dry_up": 1.035691, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025009, "annualized_volatility": 0.168796, "from_high_reference": -0.253676, "from_low_reference": 0.062827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.059333, "fair_value_reference": 2.165408, "structural_low": 1.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019474, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.012862, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.115578, "worst_return": -0.06422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020202, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032219, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.284661, "worst_return": -0.045872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089779, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066174, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.243221, "worst_return": -0.084862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 2.02, "volume": 7777, "typical_volume": 5371.0, "trend": 2.095167, "fair_value": 2.174124, "relative_strength": -21.369583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.95011, "energy": 36.429427, "activity_lines": [ 2.000667, 2.009364, 2.032929, 2.051237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.02, "volume": 3815, "typical_volume": 5126.8, "trend": 2.083167, "fair_value": 2.171881, "relative_strength": -22.240247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.550155, "energy": 31.525404, "activity_lines": [ 2.006667, 2.008909, 2.030333, 2.046387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 2.02, "volume": 3645, "typical_volume": 5077.9, "trend": 2.073833, "fair_value": 2.169522, "relative_strength": -22.054943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.208293, "energy": 28.100105, "activity_lines": [ 2.012, 2.009545, 2.027833, 2.042312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.995, "volume": 8093, "typical_volume": 5292.85, "trend": 2.064333, "fair_value": 2.167002, "relative_strength": -22.721139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.770683, "energy": 23.848778, "activity_lines": [ 2.007667, 2.006182, 2.023048, 2.037226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 2.03, "volume": 6501, "typical_volume": 5323.5, "trend": 2.059333, "fair_value": 2.165408, "relative_strength": -22.049949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.65916, "energy": 18.454652, "activity_lines": [ 2.016667, 2.010364, 2.022, 2.035011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }