{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7b35a4a-6a45-4502-8e0e-e15932592c95", "symbol": "SRF", "name": "SRF Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.256, "architecture_energy": 13.145, "architecture_maturity": 17.043, "architecture_confidence": 61.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.94, "rotation_up": 23.62, "upward_expansion": 25.42, "deceleration": 62.1, "rotation_down": 49.88, "downward_expansion": 34.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2670.118278, 2707.411075, 2691.477207, 2665.021805 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2615.0, "trend_reference": 2667.89908, "distance_from_trend": -0.019828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2615.646098, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.390602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098773, "excess_performance": -0.055064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000247, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1459849, "relative_activity": 0.653519, "balance": 0.411278, "dry_up": 1.392453, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045996, "annualized_volatility": 0.247708, "from_high_reference": -0.183855, "from_low_reference": 0.110403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2667.89908, "fair_value_reference": 2615.646098, "structural_low": 2355.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003931, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.001789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06795, "worst_return": -0.087241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00043, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.033472, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.109138, "worst_return": -0.080071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027546, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.111277, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.251417, 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"New", "return": 0.083397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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"energy": 13.145217, "activity_lines": [ 2670.118278, 2707.411075, 2691.477207, 2665.021805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }