{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e7b3d4b2-ff87-4728-9c9f-af765992a58e",
    "symbol": "XSFR",
    "name": "Xtrackers S&P Select Frontier Swap UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 50.789,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.218,
    "architecture_energy": 45.939,
    "architecture_maturity": 47.715,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.141,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.38,
        "rotation_up": 49.69,
        "upward_expansion": 80.43,
        "deceleration": 59.96,
        "rotation_down": 25.89,
        "downward_expansion": 7.1
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 26.264999,
    "trend_reference": 24.915166,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.054177,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.958135,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316005,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.880784,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.113868,
    "excess_performance": -0.057024,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054177,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03406,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.316005,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012317,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.058808,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.040734,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113868,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.575256,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 3.754753,
      "balance": 0.575256,
      "dry_up": 1.985868,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024704,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.136213,
      "from_high_reference": -0.025056,
      "from_low_reference": 0.256999
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 19.958135,
      "structural_low": 21.865,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
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        "worst_return": -0.109416,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 69.294325,
        "energy": 72.407529,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 23.795,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 6947.4,
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        "relative_strength": -1.409951,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 7225.35,
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        "relative_strength": -1.560418,
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 7991.85,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 38.255407,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 8303.8,
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        "fair_value": 19.630801,
        "relative_strength": -4.545159,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 9279.1,
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        "fair_value": 19.700987,
        "relative_strength": -3.434059,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 67.616465,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.295,
        "volume": 20463,
        "typical_volume": 9722.6,
        "trend": 24.7495,
        "fair_value": 19.766109,
        "relative_strength": -2.789155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.987461,
        "energy": 69.859489,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.243333,
          26.009454,
          25.582452,
          25.152344
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.025,
        "volume": 25330,
        "typical_volume": 10599.35,
        "trend": 24.807833,
        "fair_value": 19.827821,
        "relative_strength": -3.539626,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.213514,
        "energy": 68.450113,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.211667,
          26.042182,
          25.683143,
          25.234634
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.389999,
        "volume": 7854,
        "typical_volume": 10619.3,
        "trend": 24.8775,
        "fair_value": 19.893218,
        "relative_strength": -2.790111,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.591884,
        "energy": 65.208293,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.286333,
          26.129272,
          25.806666,
          25.33671
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.264999,
        "volume": 48089,
        "typical_volume": 12807.5,
        "trend": 24.915166,
        "fair_value": 19.958135,
        "relative_strength": -5.880784,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.218453,
        "energy": 45.939388,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.270999,
          26.177636,
          25.899857,
          25.426226
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}