{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7bd0c1f-d959-4ea8-9eee-149cf414358d", "symbol": "FSLR", "name": "First Solar, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.099, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.477, "architecture_energy": 23.202, "architecture_maturity": 63.609, "architecture_confidence": 77.305, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.16, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 38.54, "deceleration": 84.6, "rotation_down": 42.33, "downward_expansion": 39.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.573332, 199.956363, 204.132856, 198.457419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 219.0, "trend_reference": 194.008333, "distance_from_trend": 0.128817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 175.964167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.065526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173759, "excess_performance": -0.000488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024013, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173759, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.624779, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 562, "relative_activity": 7.50835, "balance": 1.624779, "dry_up": 4.8831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096593, "annualized_volatility": 0.604055, "from_high_reference": -0.182836, "from_low_reference": 0.438329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.008333, "fair_value_reference": 175.964167, "structural_low": 160.600006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029613, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.030046, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.207936, "worst_return": -0.112138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053873, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44551, "worst_return": -0.227423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090245, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.082957, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.242756, "worst_return": -0.240872, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051886, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.24111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.211367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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14.658361, "activity_lines": [ 182.226666, 176.162908, 177.510714, 186.01828 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 219.5, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 13.15, "trend": 197.658334, "fair_value": 173.466346, "relative_strength": 0.58897, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 23.19925, "energy": 35.970455, "activity_lines": [ 196.766667, 184.628363, 180.832857, 187.453226 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 263.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.95, "trend": 198.781667, "fair_value": 173.922116, "relative_strength": 16.798868, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.907273, "energy": 82.58486, "activity_lines": [ 222.233333, 200.205454, 188.414762, 191.701075 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 249.5, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 11.2, "trend": 199.615, "fair_value": 174.374552, "relative_strength": 11.285465, "stage": 2, "regime": 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175.371218, "relative_strength": -10.972216, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.445945, "energy": 56.188741, "activity_lines": [ 228.466667, 223.7, 204.071619, 199.608925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 199.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 198.76, "fair_value": 175.531218, "relative_strength": -17.735703, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.642372, "energy": 28.459864, "activity_lines": [ 216.066668, 221.472728, 204.718143, 199.622688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 201.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 198.311667, "fair_value": 175.714552, "relative_strength": -16.204015, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.229728, "energy": 30.538499, "activity_lines": [ 208.313334, 218.809091, 205.435333, 199.767204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 196.715, "fair_value": 175.731218, "relative_strength": -23.161617, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.368016, "energy": 24.995345, "activity_lines": [ 196.926665, 211.78909, 204.221333, 198.611613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.0, "volume": 550, "typical_volume": 32.4, "trend": 195.268333, "fair_value": 175.725705, "relative_strength": -24.160772, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.736945, "energy": 33.249648, "activity_lines": [ 189.046665, 204.758181, 202.893619, 197.533226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.199997, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 46.95, "trend": 193.606667, "fair_value": 175.749808, "relative_strength": -22.110122, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.248865, "energy": 33.875731, "activity_lines": [ 185.599998, 198.872726, 201.88838, 196.819139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.0, "volume": 562, "typical_volume": 74.85, "trend": 194.008333, "fair_value": 175.964167, "relative_strength": -10.065526, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.476569, "energy": 23.202172, "activity_lines": [ 195.573332, 199.956363, 204.132856, 198.457419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }