{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7be6e84-6991-4481-9859-2dd0b8a8dcb6", "symbol": "XDNS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.183, "architecture_energy": 28.214, "architecture_maturity": 63.058, "architecture_confidence": 82.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.13, "rotation_up": 31.77, "upward_expansion": 58.54, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 30.02, "downward_expansion": 22.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 1705.65, 1711.104545, 1691.727381, 1665.176529 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1760.0, "trend_reference": 1634.856738, "distance_from_trend": 0.076547, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1374.902206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.121382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097333, "excess_performance": 0.046097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076547, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045988, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021214, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413683, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20559, "relative_activity": 0.703005, "balance": 0.413683, "dry_up": 0.617109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029229, "annualized_volatility": 0.217651, "from_high_reference": -0.411675, "from_low_reference": 0.274989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1634.856738, "fair_value_reference": 1374.902206, "structural_low": 1468.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016212, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008779, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.068659, "worst_return": -0.091643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000586, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01851, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.121067, "worst_return": -0.037608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091357, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135744, "worst_return": -0.092869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 1694.966667, 1706.263636, 1677.729762, 1653.205749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1675.0, "volume": 14600, "typical_volume": 31642.5, "trend": 1627.903162, "fair_value": 1371.055523, "relative_strength": -2.418305, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.52251, "energy": 23.802396, "activity_lines": [ 1684.216667, 1701.059091, 1681.016667, 1656.654153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1760.0, "volume": 20559, "typical_volume": 29244.45, "trend": 1634.856738, "fair_value": 1374.902206, "relative_strength": 2.121382, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.183453, "energy": 28.214164, "activity_lines": [ 1705.65, 1711.104545, 1691.727381, 1665.176529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }