{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7c5fa1f-96b3-4259-84a1-f3af87f91e09", "symbol": "EDC", "name": "Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.027, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.488, "architecture_energy": 25.585, "architecture_maturity": 31.992, "architecture_confidence": 48.575, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.29, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 15.35, "deceleration": 65.42, "rotation_down": 58.85, "downward_expansion": 40.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1265.687996, 1333.300084, 1378.931921, 1338.635706 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1283.0, "trend_reference": 1287.197561, "distance_from_trend": -0.003261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 763.180029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.681124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.481062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080908, "excess_performance": 0.135575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.681124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.621035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114811, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 635, "relative_activity": 0.427898, "balance": 1.124521, "dry_up": 0.419137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14389, "annualized_volatility": 0.793585, "from_high_reference": -0.263116, "from_low_reference": 0.684113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1287.197561, "fair_value_reference": 763.180029, "structural_low": 900.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043698, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.064876, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379788, "worst_return": -0.128722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.116419, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.054328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.79548, "worst_return": -0.075147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.110939, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.115346, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40137, "worst_return": -0.130723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1270.0, "volume": 133, "typical_volume": 1617.15, "trend": 1274.244147, "fair_value": 753.782259, "relative_strength": 12.747451, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.80715, "energy": 20.461947, "activity_lines": [ 1313.974658, 1396.044336, 1393.533994, 1341.653425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1225.0, "volume": 660, "typical_volume": 1577.75, "trend": 1280.530495, "fair_value": 758.152105, "relative_strength": 7.158644, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.285709, "energy": 24.853832, "activity_lines": [ 1272.109326, 1357.360669, 1383.901437, 1338.476383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1283.0, "volume": 635, "typical_volume": 1484.0, "trend": 1287.197561, "fair_value": 763.180029, "relative_strength": 11.481062, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.487853, "energy": 25.585335, "activity_lines": [ 1265.687996, 1333.300084, 1378.931921, 1338.635706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }