{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7c80ebf-9ce5-4be9-bb72-fb5d7cfb9d87", "symbol": "UEN", "name": "Ubisoft Entertainment SA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.569, "architecture_energy": 24.306, "architecture_maturity": 36.553, "architecture_confidence": 71.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.59, "rotation_up": 36.61, "upward_expansion": 69.55, "deceleration": 89.18, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 9.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.423533, 5.407673, 5.272962, 5.037271 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.362, "trend_reference": 4.8319, "distance_from_trend": 0.109708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.789231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.611146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.177022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.343186, "excess_performance": 0.278547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077371, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.611146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.989308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36453, "relative_activity": 0.222569, "balance": 8.989308, "dry_up": 0.272318, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128899, "annualized_volatility": 0.630204, "from_high_reference": -0.476878, "from_low_reference": 0.441398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.8319, "fair_value_reference": 13.789231, "structural_low": 3.72, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032529, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000629, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.11809, "worst_return": -0.188698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052442, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088997, "worst_return": -0.168276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.094255, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.11833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.094255, "worst_return": -0.094255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079384, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.308043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.267271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.215633, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 184733.65, "trend": 4.874633, "fair_value": 14.078526, "relative_strength": -24.98391, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.073061, "energy": 33.06202, "activity_lines": [ 5.335, 5.317927, 5.146633, 4.945065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.798, "volume": 20498, "typical_volume": 175748.55, "trend": 4.856167, "fair_value": 13.93159, "relative_strength": -11.350204, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.86679, "energy": 36.371872, "activity_lines": [ 5.475067, 5.406982, 5.234867, 5.004637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.362, "volume": 36453, "typical_volume": 163782.85, "trend": 4.8319, "fair_value": 13.789231, "relative_strength": -19.177022, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.568592, "energy": 24.305902, "activity_lines": [ 5.423533, 5.407673, 5.272962, 5.037271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }