{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7c820da-64cc-4661-bb8f-b98848e6c93d", "symbol": "TSFA", "name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.589, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.386, "architecture_energy": 24.056, "architecture_maturity": 66.111, "architecture_confidence": 84.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.84, "rotation_up": 21.98, "upward_expansion": 55.02, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 33.84, "downward_expansion": 18.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 357.633333, 366.228141, 361.502435, 348.87767 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 361.5, "trend_reference": 331.990858, "distance_from_trend": 0.088885, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 193.041447, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.872655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.43324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.237721, "excess_performance": 0.063475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.872655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024332, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237721, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232, "relative_activity": 1.726833, "balance": 0.712305, "dry_up": 2.618162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070987, "annualized_volatility": 0.346603, "from_high_reference": -0.116137, "from_low_reference": 0.872402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 331.990858, "fair_value_reference": 193.041447, "structural_low": 277.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037941, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.05647, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.231378, "worst_return": -0.079859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.195664, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.129223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335605, "worst_return": -0.180186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.336197, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.246935, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.504731, "worst_return": -0.163199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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189.521429, "relative_strength": 5.174749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.518667, "energy": 28.490904, "activity_lines": [ 365.066667, 370.90127, 359.086327, 345.093474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 352.5, "volume": 522, "typical_volume": 126.0, "trend": 329.09501, "fair_value": 191.242783, "relative_strength": 3.317081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.909634, "energy": 23.277745, "activity_lines": [ 359.133333, 367.776906, 360.003759, 346.787025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 361.5, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 134.35, "trend": 331.990858, "fair_value": 193.041447, "relative_strength": 2.43324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.385648, "energy": 24.056064, "activity_lines": [ 357.633333, 366.228141, 361.502435, 348.87767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }