{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7ca435e-fa0d-427a-9e64-2177e2892826", "symbol": "600622", "name": "Everbright Jiabao Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.591, "architecture_energy": 44.877, "architecture_maturity": 77.619, "architecture_confidence": 66.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.31, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 18.33, "deceleration": 66.78, "rotation_down": 48.84, "downward_expansion": 70.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.082, 2.079455, 2.235905, 2.355484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.15, "trend_reference": 2.520667, "distance_from_trend": -0.147051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.785641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.243582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250871, "excess_performance": -0.207667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103858513, "relative_activity": 1.19563, "balance": 0.564074, "dry_up": 1.239947, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089445, "annualized_volatility": 0.290089, "from_high_reference": -0.363905, "from_low_reference": 0.131579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.520667, "fair_value_reference": 2.785641, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.022989, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.011463, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.528736, "worst_return": -0.177994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034591, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.017527, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.42246, "worst_return": -0.200758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009046, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031746, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.966507, "worst_return": -0.258865, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.761317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.279805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", 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"typical_volume": 89497222.15, "trend": 2.571333, "fair_value": 2.795897, "relative_strength": -25.009295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.832035, "energy": 71.716606, "activity_lines": [ 2.013333, 2.104, 2.286429, 2.410688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.11, "volume": 112587118, "typical_volume": 90391366.15, "trend": 2.544333, "fair_value": 2.790769, "relative_strength": -20.154935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.810305, "energy": 57.372342, "activity_lines": [ 2.044667, 2.084545, 2.257619, 2.380925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.15, "volume": 103858513, "typical_volume": 86865127.4, "trend": 2.520667, "fair_value": 2.785641, "relative_strength": -20.243582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.591159, "energy": 44.876714, "activity_lines": [ 2.082, 2.079455, 2.235905, 2.355484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }