{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7d43198-8bf5-40ae-9214-f60ec3e10c70", "symbol": "THRU", "name": "Thruvision Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.842, "architecture_energy": 51.186, "architecture_maturity": 51.815, "architecture_confidence": 89.654, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.11, "rotation_up": 21.29, "upward_expansion": 7.25, "deceleration": 48.08, "rotation_down": 63.04, "downward_expansion": 85.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006517, 0.0067, 0.007073, 0.007553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00625, "trend_reference": 0.008192, "distance_from_trend": -0.23703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.089671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.930301, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.921603, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342105, "excess_performance": -0.393341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.930301, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048434, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123341, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1425028, "relative_activity": 0.451711, "balance": 1.123341, "dry_up": 0.449265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136, "annualized_volatility": 0.368816, "from_high_reference": -0.6875, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008192, "fair_value_reference": 0.089671, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.034608, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.727273, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.140625, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.152622, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.24878, "worst_return": -0.710526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.312477, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.473171, "worst_return": -0.84, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.323275, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146341, "worst_return": -0.9125, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-08-19", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128906, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -38.164847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.212848, "energy": 46.477092, "activity_lines": [ 0.0068, 0.006927, 0.007327, 0.007808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0065, "volume": 870325, "typical_volume": 3347741.9, "trend": 0.0083, "fair_value": 0.091362, "relative_strength": -39.786709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.96519, "energy": 52.880982, "activity_lines": [ 0.006683, 0.006827, 0.007205, 0.007685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00625, "volume": 1425028, "typical_volume": 3154735.55, "trend": 0.008192, "fair_value": 0.089671, "relative_strength": -40.921603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.842211, "energy": 51.18563, "activity_lines": [ 0.006517, 0.0067, 0.007073, 0.007553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }