{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7d48461-34a6-4be3-8ac3-538734392e50", "symbol": "BTI", "name": "British American Tobacco p.l.c.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.798, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.317, "architecture_energy": 6.82, "architecture_maturity": 7.948, "architecture_confidence": 58.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.77, "rotation_up": 29.1, "upward_expansion": 50.37, "deceleration": 78.01, "rotation_down": 20.44, "downward_expansion": 19.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.522, 60.639551, 60.67194, 60.275987 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 59.33, "trend_reference": 59.856421, "distance_from_trend": -0.008795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.531405, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.382711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041609, "excess_performance": -0.167234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463803, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15833735, "relative_activity": 0.793484, "balance": 0.789872, "dry_up": 1.044392, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068044, "annualized_volatility": 0.308545, "from_high_reference": -0.118425, "from_low_reference": 0.222618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.856421, "fair_value_reference": 40.531405, "structural_low": 54.83, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012099, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005023, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040926, "worst_return": -0.088918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030171, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052971, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.200649, "worst_return": -0.100543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049681, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.063499, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.356421, "worst_return": 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"volume": 16656609, "typical_volume": 20719457.0, "trend": 59.528722, "fair_value": 40.099522, "relative_strength": -0.737878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.612124, "energy": 21.527404, "activity_lines": [ 61.330947, 61.003341, 60.677804, 60.227016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.65, "volume": 22857833, "typical_volume": 20459976.95, "trend": 59.692227, "fair_value": 40.319331, "relative_strength": -2.23293, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.215183, "energy": 19.358697, "activity_lines": [ 61.10484, 60.898628, 60.741475, 60.299357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.33, "volume": 15833735, "typical_volume": 19954694.3, "trend": 59.856421, "fair_value": 40.531405, "relative_strength": -7.382711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.317232, "energy": 6.820133, "activity_lines": [ 60.522, 60.639551, 60.67194, 60.275987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }