{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7d56b64-4abb-4443-af1e-c6499c859a32", "symbol": "ASRD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy JPM Screened EMBI Global Diversified Composite UCITS ETF H EUR Capitalisation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 95.314, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.512, "architecture_energy": 16.605, "architecture_maturity": 23.546, "architecture_confidence": 68.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.35, "rotation_up": 15.19, "upward_expansion": 22.61, "deceleration": 75.19, "rotation_down": 53.03, "downward_expansion": 30.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.6796, 9.717709, 9.716857, 9.701312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.715, "trend_reference": 9.694267, "distance_from_trend": 0.002139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.931679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.603215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000309, "excess_performance": -0.170583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74115, "relative_activity": 2.036885, "balance": 1.017799, "dry_up": 1.378865, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009391, "annualized_volatility": 0.066577, "from_high_reference": -0.015105, "from_low_reference": 0.048796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.694267, "fair_value_reference": 8.931679, "structural_low": 9.32, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008341, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0257, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.018395, "worst_return": -0.042216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002979, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.043452, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.04229, "worst_return": -0.006289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031269, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.083197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044522, "worst_return": 0.018017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.72261, 9.708389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.638, "volume": 61509, "typical_volume": 39415.0, "trend": 9.693567, "fair_value": 8.911359, "relative_strength": -11.832234, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.743853, "energy": 12.619167, "activity_lines": [ 9.722933, 9.7454, 9.718724, 9.704783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.617, "volume": 36651, "typical_volume": 34773.95, "trend": 9.692233, "fair_value": 8.921218, "relative_strength": -12.280414, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.682945, "energy": 21.412288, "activity_lines": [ 9.678467, 9.722564, 9.713267, 9.699843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.715, "volume": 74115, "typical_volume": 36386.45, "trend": 9.694267, "fair_value": 8.931679, "relative_strength": -13.603215, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.512398, "energy": 16.604683, "activity_lines": [ 9.6796, 9.717709, 9.716857, 9.701312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }