{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7d59b68-6ace-4fac-9bbd-e851cc02d511", "symbol": "FLX", "name": "Felix Group Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.943, "architecture_energy": 65.446, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.28, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 29.3, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.71, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.052036, 0.060776, 0.072377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.090717, "distance_from_trend": -0.448833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.162058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.691468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.543193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.642857, "excess_performance": -0.706563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.448833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.691468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.645432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.642857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26479, "relative_activity": 0.044132, "balance": 0.941676, "dry_up": 0.019367, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.514337, "from_high_reference": -0.791667, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.090717, "fair_value_reference": 0.162058, "structural_low": 0.045, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.069444, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.07914, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.860465, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.095473, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.202381, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.887755, "worst_return": -0.69697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 715937.25, "trend": 0.098217, "fair_value": 0.162583, "relative_strength": -64.33317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.057179, "energy": 82.965833, "activity_lines": [ 0.050333, 0.055091, 0.065505, 0.078352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 643948.25, "trend": 0.094383, "fair_value": 0.162276, "relative_strength": -64.2937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.859547, "energy": 76.355457, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.053364, 0.062986, 0.075241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 26479, "typical_volume": 599989.25, "trend": 0.090717, "fair_value": 0.162058, "relative_strength": -64.543193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.942505, "energy": 65.446261, "activity_lines": [ 0.05, 0.052036, 0.060776, 0.072377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }