{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7dbee09-8762-4a15-8482-9125db41b838", "symbol": "ARTY", "name": "ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.603, "architecture_energy": 23.195, "architecture_maturity": 74.403, "architecture_confidence": 92.895, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.49, "rotation_up": 25.42, "upward_expansion": 54.85, "deceleration": 91.02, "rotation_down": 29.45, "downward_expansion": 18.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.932667, 70.048332, 69.252328, 65.462815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 72.78, "trend_reference": 60.666562, "distance_from_trend": 0.199672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.23496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.765007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.41567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.436875, "excess_performance": 0.31125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.199672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.765007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.194157, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.436875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.021356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1882265, "relative_activity": 0.506815, "balance": 1.021356, "dry_up": 0.696417, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097748, "annualized_volatility": 0.403886, "from_high_reference": -0.110314, "from_low_reference": 0.795164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.666562, "fair_value_reference": 41.23496, "structural_low": 43.745464, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002019, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090629, "worst_return": -0.033014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010619, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026884, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.068728, "worst_return": -0.062756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.105847, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077206, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.426292, "worst_return": 0.013836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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50.611681, "activity_lines": [ 72.981929, 72.58619, 67.486067, 63.178578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.43, "volume": 3005718, "typical_volume": 3836523.9, "trend": 58.745119, "fair_value": 40.540564, "relative_strength": 13.604258, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.280464, "energy": 29.199587, "activity_lines": [ 70.258667, 71.463395, 67.811116, 63.648133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.71, "volume": 2218053, "typical_volume": 3844934.25, "trend": 59.34936, "fair_value": 40.749882, "relative_strength": 15.876999, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.838753, "energy": 22.860805, "activity_lines": [ 68.482, 70.626267, 68.189268, 64.161996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.65, "volume": 3239676, "typical_volume": 3773057.55, "trend": 59.917954, "fair_value": 40.968333, "relative_strength": 13.939942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.332082, "energy": 21.451081, "activity_lines": [ 67.498, 69.761014, 68.472386, 64.633005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.78, "volume": 1882265, "typical_volume": 3713909.55, "trend": 60.666562, "fair_value": 41.23496, "relative_strength": 19.41567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.602791, "energy": 23.194824, "activity_lines": [ 68.932667, 70.048332, 69.252328, 65.462815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }