{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7e14a11-410d-4e6f-b96b-6637143a3925", "symbol": "EWW", "name": "iShares MSCI Mexico ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.354, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.497, "architecture_energy": 12.862, "architecture_maturity": 20.738, "architecture_confidence": 50.931, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.51, "rotation_up": 23.14, "upward_expansion": 17.02, "deceleration": 55.54, "rotation_down": 46.06, "downward_expansion": 42.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1335.77334, 1342.760418, 1346.452333, 1346.076772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1333.0, "trend_reference": 1345.412032, "distance_from_trend": -0.009225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1152.212832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.910518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005224, "excess_performance": 0.049443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03111, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019105, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.373671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132, "relative_activity": 0.048718, "balance": 2.373671, "dry_up": 0.477588, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044614, "annualized_volatility": 0.217537, "from_high_reference": -0.117219, "from_low_reference": 0.19803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1345.412032, "fair_value_reference": 1152.212832, "structural_low": 1265.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024022, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017995, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.03584, "worst_return": 0.012205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028196, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028877, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 1037.038086, 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] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1333.0, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 2709.45, "trend": 1345.412032, "fair_value": 1152.212832, "relative_strength": 1.910518, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.496692, "energy": 12.861516, "activity_lines": [ 1335.77334, 1342.760418, 1346.452333, 1346.076772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }