{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7e1dae7-aca4-415e-ae00-f17b94bec1e5", "symbol": "SDG9", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.334, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.185, "architecture_energy": 54.061, "architecture_maturity": 6.402, "architecture_confidence": 68.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.46, "rotation_up": 14.52, "upward_expansion": 26.14, "deceleration": 50.49, "rotation_down": 70.03, "downward_expansion": 55.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.127499, 35.567227, 36.459428, 36.322736 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.842499, "trend_reference": 36.023583, "distance_from_trend": -0.005027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.636581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.681135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000838, "excess_performance": -0.050398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.354785, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.354785, "dry_up": 0.413507, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032149, "annualized_volatility": 0.185035, "from_high_reference": -0.106395, "from_low_reference": 0.388303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.023583, "fair_value_reference": 27.636581, "structural_low": 32.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020864, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.037483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.416327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031365, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.1975, 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37.113363, 37.014548, 36.53335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.7575, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1855.6, "trend": 35.765417, "fair_value": 27.550828, "relative_strength": -0.362825, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.299874, "energy": 42.63494, "activity_lines": [ 35.668333, 36.579273, 36.852095, 36.474989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.752499, "volume": 3103, "typical_volume": 2008.6, "trend": 35.8575, "fair_value": 27.570667, "relative_strength": -1.805849, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.609958, "energy": 52.967138, "activity_lines": [ 35.227833, 36.115, 36.695619, 36.40964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.592499, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 2019.75, "trend": 35.9245, "fair_value": 27.596388, "relative_strength": -3.634469, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.676283, "energy": 62.385529, "activity_lines": [ 34.920833, 35.688636, 36.519488, 36.328027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.842499, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2010.85, "trend": 36.023583, "fair_value": 27.636581, "relative_strength": -0.681135, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.185474, "energy": 54.061212, "activity_lines": [ 35.127499, 35.567227, 36.459428, 36.322736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }