{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7e43aab-6665-4e57-8c1f-f7b5a0c9b1ef", "symbol": "AUA", "name": "Audeara Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.627, "architecture_energy": 45.734, "architecture_maturity": 70.824, "architecture_confidence": 62.084, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 61.97, "rotation_down": 40.49, "downward_expansion": 67.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.0308, 0.033481, 0.040477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.031, "trend_reference": 0.0503, "distance_from_trend": -0.383698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.039426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213722, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.689175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.69, "excess_performance": -0.753706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.383698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213722, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.69, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.846034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341636, "relative_activity": 0.474432, "balance": 2.846034, "dry_up": 0.432638, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188586, "annualized_volatility": 1.066423, "from_high_reference": -0.741667, "from_low_reference": 0.631579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0503, "fair_value_reference": 0.039426, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.068463, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124495, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.132727, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.451613, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.288889, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.272956, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.354839, "worst_return": -0.488636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.3125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.120334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.742857, "worst_return": -0.636364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207547, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.268293, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.642857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.577465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.044, "volume": 103731, "typical_volume": 204831.2, "trend": 0.054333, "fair_value": 0.094322, "relative_strength": -36.43103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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-63.273048, "energy": 61.613412, "activity_lines": [ 0.0304, 0.032236, 0.039971, 0.0476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.032, "volume": 152587, "typical_volume": 868145.2, "trend": 0.054233, "fair_value": 0.03974, "relative_strength": -25.992018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.819711, "energy": 56.769266, "activity_lines": [ 0.030467, 0.032127, 0.038362, 0.046148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 193327, "typical_volume": 838696.45, "trend": 0.0532, "fair_value": 0.039663, "relative_strength": -30.633057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.896957, "energy": 56.235695, "activity_lines": [ 0.0304, 0.031618, 0.036771, 0.044585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.032, "volume": 408744, "typical_volume": 737069.85, "trend": 0.052333, "fair_value": 0.039612, "relative_strength": -26.05693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.917925, "energy": 48.893311, "activity_lines": [ 0.031, 0.031473, 0.035571, 0.043217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 302452, "typical_volume": 705114.9, "trend": 0.051133, "fair_value": 0.039522, "relative_strength": -32.468739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.241867, "energy": 52.742896, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.030945, 0.034381, 0.041776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.031, "volume": 341636, "typical_volume": 720094.15, "trend": 0.0503, "fair_value": 0.039426, "relative_strength": -32.689175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.626627, "energy": 45.734488, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.0308, 0.033481, 0.040477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }