{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7e58079-e972-4cd9-bc58-278156d8c357", "symbol": "XRG", "name": "xReality Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.039, "architecture_energy": 27.195, "architecture_maturity": 45.792, "architecture_confidence": 89.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.31, "rotation_up": 39.51, "upward_expansion": 67.62, "deceleration": 87.17, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 12.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.066067, 0.065927, 0.064581, 0.061918 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.067, "trend_reference": 0.058167, "distance_from_trend": 0.151862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.042661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.570532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.323319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.288462, "excess_performance": 0.224756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.570532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133233, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.288462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.802173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 563871, "relative_activity": 0.273235, "balance": 2.802173, "dry_up": 0.997065, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102755, "annualized_volatility": 0.398355, "from_high_reference": -0.118421, "from_low_reference": 0.634146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.058167, "fair_value_reference": 0.042661, "structural_low": 0.045, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.054767, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.061299, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.615397, "worst_return": -0.428579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.160003, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.15074, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.255319, "worst_return": -0.272732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139777, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.136491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072727, "worst_return": -0.238099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": 12.089679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.382766, "energy": 27.373086, "activity_lines": [ 0.065067, 0.065582, 0.062881, 0.060133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.062, "volume": 2252343, "typical_volume": 2197264.3, "trend": 0.057, "fair_value": 0.042399, "relative_strength": 12.817557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.996318, "energy": 22.579244, "activity_lines": [ 0.063867, 0.064964, 0.0631, 0.060469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 2105384, "typical_volume": 2179070.6, "trend": 0.057533, "fair_value": 0.04253, "relative_strength": 22.924497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.32819, "energy": 29.157463, "activity_lines": [ 0.065667, 0.065782, 0.064033, 0.061308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.067, "volume": 563871, "typical_volume": 2063681.6, "trend": 0.058167, "fair_value": 0.042661, "relative_strength": 13.323319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.039403, "energy": 27.195115, "activity_lines": [ 0.066067, 0.065927, 0.064581, 0.061918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }