{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7e735d4-db94-43bb-8c3c-14dd3197ce0b", "symbol": "AUB", "name": "Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.655, "architecture_energy": 47.907, "architecture_maturity": 32.239, "architecture_confidence": 79.076, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 55.8, "upward_expansion": 80.31, "deceleration": 62.39, "rotation_down": 21.47, "downward_expansion": 6.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.930005, 41.639845, 40.223671, 39.28579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.78, "trend_reference": 38.506397, "distance_from_trend": 0.085015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.19003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.960718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019139, "excess_performance": -0.106486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4202057, "relative_activity": 0.79416, "balance": 1.559018, "dry_up": 1.053503, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049489, "annualized_volatility": 0.25322, "from_high_reference": -0.0337, "from_low_reference": 0.37932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.506397, "fair_value_reference": 33.19003, "structural_low": 33.044482, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.023371, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.00784, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.158745, "worst_return": -0.15695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028583, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.067906, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.068564, "worst_return": -0.24266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020483, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.116082, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.22209, "worst_return": -0.216743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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70.09621, "energy": 76.866421, "activity_lines": [ 41.347339, 40.131093, 38.737266, 38.256026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.275611, "volume": 5999212, "typical_volume": 5341724.55, "trend": 37.893379, "fair_value": 32.934565, "relative_strength": 8.052497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.710046, "energy": 79.533758, "activity_lines": [ 41.779221, 40.697475, 39.181313, 38.552434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.859298, "volume": 7816111, "typical_volume": 5494300.35, "trend": 38.098141, "fair_value": 33.025182, "relative_strength": 7.373912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.730899, "energy": 71.241941, "activity_lines": [ 41.940625, 41.102964, 39.559153, 38.8083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.057542, "volume": 4279773, "typical_volume": 5410536.6, "trend": 38.338293, "fair_value": 33.10921, "relative_strength": 6.423707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.509923, "energy": 58.828434, "activity_lines": [ 41.988157, 41.437522, 39.923895, 39.063745 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.78, "volume": 4202057, "typical_volume": 5291194.55, "trend": 38.506397, "fair_value": 33.19003, "relative_strength": 1.960718, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.655134, "energy": 47.906999, "activity_lines": [ 41.930005, 41.639845, 40.223671, 39.28579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }