{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7eab167-44af-4b3c-9289-1559e792bd4a", "symbol": "NVCR", "name": "Novocure Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.433, "architecture_energy": 17.431, "architecture_maturity": 43.555, "architecture_confidence": 90.636, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.92, "rotation_up": 35.26, "upward_expansion": 57.8, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 25.54, "downward_expansion": 19.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.16, 16.203273, 16.170429, 15.351075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.39, "trend_reference": 14.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.143488, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.549327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009627, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.647357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.616371, "excess_performance": 0.428917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143488, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.616371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.313091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7089700, "relative_activity": 0.896209, "balance": 1.313091, "dry_up": 1.119416, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157982, "annualized_volatility": 0.773783, "from_high_reference": -0.235919, "from_low_reference": 0.669043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.333333, "fair_value_reference": 16.549327, "structural_low": 9.82, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.061323, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.102674, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.234207, "worst_return": -0.300681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.191277, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.163112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.110837, "worst_return": -0.362412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.099921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182315, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.384332, "worst_return": -0.645245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.49429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.445579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.85292, "worst_return": -0.620848, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.194921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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"up", "direction": 38.644591, "energy": 23.777658, "activity_lines": [ 15.931333, 16.489455, 15.198905, 14.433204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.2, "volume": 5823786, "typical_volume": 8065799.7, "trend": 13.867, "fair_value": 17.131827, "relative_strength": 11.847784, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.70015, "energy": 24.565227, "activity_lines": [ 16.218667, 16.631091, 15.49381, 14.659183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.3, "volume": 9102871, "typical_volume": 8185886.65, "trend": 13.966333, "fair_value": 16.980288, "relative_strength": 4.989329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.075265, "energy": 19.720486, "activity_lines": [ 16.195333, 16.523091, 15.673429, 14.816151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.92, "volume": 5089484, "typical_volume": 7434744.2, "trend": 14.069, "fair_value": 16.832853, "relative_strength": 7.548411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.75652, "energy": 20.401792, "activity_lines": [ 16.102667, 16.351818, 15.793333, 14.942194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.65, "volume": 15896441, "typical_volume": 7760097.0, "trend": 14.208, "fair_value": 16.732404, "relative_strength": 20.683733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.785399, "energy": 30.708761, "activity_lines": [ 16.710667, 16.530909, 16.067286, 15.173226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.84, "volume": 7346124, "typical_volume": 7883792.1, "trend": 14.265333, "fair_value": 16.644519, "relative_strength": 0.819619, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.426645, "energy": 15.430601, "activity_lines": [ 16.157333, 16.197818, 16.051667, 15.214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.39, "volume": 7089700, "typical_volume": 7910766.1, "trend": 14.333333, "fair_value": 16.549327, "relative_strength": 5.647357, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.432871, "energy": 17.430918, "activity_lines": [ 16.16, 16.203273, 16.170429, 15.351075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }