{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7eb136c-3e67-4aba-b368-d4114fab76e3", "symbol": "688767", "name": "Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.684, "architecture_energy": 6.437, "architecture_maturity": 22.557, "architecture_confidence": 81.638, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.2, "rotation_up": 36.95, "upward_expansion": 28.7, "deceleration": 33.87, "rotation_down": 30.05, "downward_expansion": 26.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.970666, 36.514726, 36.744378, 36.434547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.98, "trend_reference": 36.621086, "distance_from_trend": 0.064414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.943003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.316545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119493, "excess_performance": 0.162696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064414, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033165, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015632, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11885103, "relative_activity": 1.17506, "balance": 1.409714, "dry_up": 1.240289, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107003, "annualized_volatility": 0.559753, "from_high_reference": -0.221098, "from_low_reference": 0.306197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.621086, "fair_value_reference": 26.943003, "structural_low": 29.842348, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024069, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000168, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.166171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031011, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.047424, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.378621, "worst_return": -0.160684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273172, "worst_return": -0.163828, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-11-28", 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10.815422, "activity_lines": [ 36.007332, 36.037817, 36.449208, 36.278288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.98, "volume": 11885103, "typical_volume": 10114463.05, "trend": 36.621086, "fair_value": 26.943003, "relative_strength": 3.316545, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.6844, "energy": 6.437387, "activity_lines": [ 36.970666, 36.514726, 36.744378, 36.434547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }