{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7eea263-0bc0-40eb-92d5-b7593b255eef", "symbol": "OGCP", "name": "Empire State Realty OP LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.538, "architecture_energy": 51.891, "architecture_maturity": 30.842, "architecture_confidence": 82.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.29, "rotation_up": 13.1, "upward_expansion": 10.57, "deceleration": 38.38, "rotation_down": 69.1, "downward_expansion": 83.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.1592, 5.31431, 5.365367, 5.371758 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 5.506195, "distance_from_trend": -0.135519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.959313, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.090796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268245, "excess_performance": -0.39387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5421, "relative_activity": 0.629438, "balance": 0.611108, "dry_up": 0.917074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085384, "annualized_volatility": 0.389536, "from_high_reference": -0.407399, "from_low_reference": 0.055432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.506195, "fair_value_reference": 7.959313, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.026216, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.028661, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.136114, "worst_return": -0.2255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.132818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077794, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.12378, "worst_return": -0.226658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.166993, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.421044, "worst_return": -0.210178, "sufficient": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047142, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.076926, "energy": 10.462305, "activity_lines": [ 5.477333, 5.49804, 5.413387, 5.457133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 9618, "typical_volume": 8573.05, "trend": 5.585389, "fair_value": 8.002478, "relative_strength": -19.8441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.823458, "energy": 19.376991, "activity_lines": [ 5.431333, 5.480152, 5.422646, 5.44373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.262, "volume": 5295, "typical_volume": 8750.0, "trend": 5.552184, "fair_value": 7.982842, "relative_strength": -22.038955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.366409, "energy": 23.225919, "activity_lines": [ 5.362667, 5.442361, 5.418524, 5.422867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 5421, "typical_volume": 8612.45, "trend": 5.506195, "fair_value": 7.959313, "relative_strength": -31.090796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.538441, "energy": 51.891159, "activity_lines": [ 5.1592, 5.31431, 5.365367, 5.371758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }