{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7f46c06-c745-47e0-b9cc-94f743cf93c6", "symbol": "601825", "name": "Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.034, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.936, "architecture_energy": 23.709, "architecture_maturity": 79.26, "architecture_confidence": 69.149, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.14, "rotation_up": 35.72, "upward_expansion": 20.97, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 25.16, "downward_expansion": 57.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.266, 8.120373, 8.268211, 8.39857 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.29, "trend_reference": 8.531035, "distance_from_trend": -0.028254, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.363105, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.49262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034924, "excess_performance": 0.008279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.575777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151161402, "relative_activity": 1.636219, "balance": 1.575777, "dry_up": 1.631248, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05038, "annualized_volatility": 0.204492, "from_high_reference": -0.140933, "from_low_reference": 0.115747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.531035, "fair_value_reference": 7.363105, "structural_low": 7.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025395, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.035968, "worst_return": -0.048235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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8.003166, 8.28003, 8.415606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.59, "volume": 167487300, "typical_volume": 88804571.55, "trend": 8.564368, "fair_value": 7.341035, "relative_strength": 2.475395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.494544, "energy": 20.303119, "activity_lines": [ 8.166667, 8.090826, 8.287883, 8.416271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.29, "volume": 151161402, "typical_volume": 92384594.05, "trend": 8.531035, "fair_value": 7.363105, "relative_strength": -3.49262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.935556, "energy": 23.709395, "activity_lines": [ 8.266, 8.120373, 8.268211, 8.39857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }