{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7fec847-4067-4dd8-894e-ea1a11545845", "symbol": "XUCD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.938, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.859, "architecture_energy": 20.788, "architecture_maturity": 22.767, "architecture_confidence": 76.467, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.56, "rotation_up": 39.75, "upward_expansion": 57.27, "deceleration": 77.83, "rotation_down": 23.78, "downward_expansion": 18.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.676668, 96.417819, 96.726619, 95.92203 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 100.385002, "trend_reference": 95.450219, "distance_from_trend": 0.0517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.590608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.193588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069257, "excess_performance": 0.018022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9155, "relative_activity": 0.468472, "balance": 1.44206, "dry_up": 0.345226, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034391, "annualized_volatility": 0.216818, "from_high_reference": -0.010738, "from_low_reference": 0.170125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.450219, "fair_value_reference": 82.590608, "structural_low": 85.790001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039022, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.029416, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.071492, "worst_return": -0.041513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145254, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.103358, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23974, "worst_return": -0.122404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.156155, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090452, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.328226, "worst_return": -0.040511, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": -11.079883, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.916347, "energy": 18.788476, "activity_lines": [ 94.967668, 95.758818, 96.166024, 95.566713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.055, "volume": 5715, "typical_volume": 20363.05, "trend": 95.467252, "fair_value": 82.361973, "relative_strength": -7.22341, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.708517, "energy": 10.849437, "activity_lines": [ 95.134667, 95.669273, 96.254928, 95.604755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.385002, "volume": 9155, "typical_volume": 19542.25, "trend": 95.450219, "fair_value": 82.590608, "relative_strength": -3.193588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.858726, "energy": 20.788045, "activity_lines": [ 96.676668, 96.417819, 96.726619, 95.92203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }