{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e802c50f-cc0a-4dd1-8ee0-ed882e3d6f4b", "symbol": "BUFY", "name": "FT Vest Laddered International Moderate Buffer ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.048, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.857, "architecture_energy": 77.839, "architecture_maturity": 35.351, "architecture_confidence": 77.258, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.75, "rotation_up": 66.52, "upward_expansion": 89.89, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 19.02, "downward_expansion": 16.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.669333, 23.559718, 23.390829, 23.204131 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.955, "trend_reference": 23.000357, "distance_from_trend": 0.041506, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.289548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1252, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.135607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049737, "excess_performance": -0.075888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041506, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021055, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049737, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237008, "relative_activity": 1.095216, "balance": 1.106012, "dry_up": 1.206199, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011526, "annualized_volatility": 0.073624, "from_high_reference": -0.000626, "from_low_reference": 0.12974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.000357, "fair_value_reference": 21.289548, "structural_low": 21.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011559, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002308, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01225, "worst_return": -0.002312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021365, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016277, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.021365, "worst_return": 0.021365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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23.160031, 23.016965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.43, "volume": 133174, "typical_volume": 187799.4, "trend": 22.870023, "fair_value": 21.214165, "relative_strength": -3.87393, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.043536, "energy": 45.25149, "activity_lines": [ 23.449093, 23.388885, 23.205671, 23.055855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.425, "volume": 351685, "typical_volume": 198374.8, "trend": 22.90919, "fair_value": 21.237195, "relative_strength": -3.209022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.061568, "energy": 55.504201, "activity_lines": [ 23.4444, 23.408193, 23.24874, 23.09166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.65, "volume": 322233, "typical_volume": 209328.9, "trend": 22.952523, "fair_value": 21.262069, "relative_strength": -3.211529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.330982, "energy": 59.683196, "activity_lines": [ 23.51866, 23.460318, 23.308594, 23.139455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.955, "volume": 237008, "typical_volume": 216402.9, "trend": 23.000357, "fair_value": 21.289548, "relative_strength": -5.135607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.856502, "energy": 77.838589, "activity_lines": [ 23.669333, 23.559718, 23.390829, 23.204131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }