{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e806c2b4-375e-436e-b73c-6389e4f650ea", "symbol": "3710", "name": "ACON Holding Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.637, "architecture_energy": 78.587, "architecture_maturity": 24.031, "architecture_confidence": 86.115, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.32, "rotation_up": 10.06, "upward_expansion": 18.55, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 78.73, "downward_expansion": 96.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.192667, 5.456364, 5.81681, 6.019075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.15, "trend_reference": 6.245333, "distance_from_trend": -0.175384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.229231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.44199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.813492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241532, "excess_performance": -0.682904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.44199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.488135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1280209, "relative_activity": 0.46114, "balance": 0.682896, "dry_up": 0.491364, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099627, "annualized_volatility": 0.34168, "from_high_reference": -0.507177, "from_low_reference": 0.061856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.245333, "fair_value_reference": 9.229231, "structural_low": 4.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.01218, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.044266, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.245353, "worst_return": -0.195238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055481, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.049145, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.448231, "worst_return": -0.219048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042373, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.226414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199783, "worst_return": -0.131429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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-28.532788, "energy": 31.596487, "activity_lines": [ 5.994, 6.1, 6.280524, 6.347828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.64, "volume": 1605818, "typical_volume": 2831182.7, "trend": 6.335, "fair_value": 9.366923, "relative_strength": -44.322094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.958615, "energy": 53.058968, "activity_lines": [ 5.845333, 6.004545, 6.21, 6.302516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.54, "volume": 725621, "typical_volume": 2758632.35, "trend": 6.323, "fair_value": 9.334808, "relative_strength": -45.560284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.330971, "energy": 63.732536, "activity_lines": [ 5.709333, 5.902727, 6.134238, 6.251226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 1702290, "typical_volume": 2785589.75, "trend": 6.293333, "fair_value": 9.297628, "relative_strength": -48.298871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.824831, "energy": 73.332191, "activity_lines": [ 5.480667, 5.732545, 6.023095, 6.172323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.03, "volume": 1748342, "typical_volume": 2803044.05, "trend": 6.262, "fair_value": 9.262564, "relative_strength": -49.300945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.730562, "energy": 78.983228, "activity_lines": [ 5.288, 5.573091, 5.911619, 6.090817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.15, "volume": 1280209, "typical_volume": 2776183.8, "trend": 6.245333, "fair_value": 9.229231, "relative_strength": -48.813492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.63749, "energy": 78.587203, "activity_lines": [ 5.192667, 5.456364, 5.81681, 6.019075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }