{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e8097596-0137-4b5b-acff-f5525c87d215", "symbol": "FND", "name": "Floor & Decor Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.236, "architecture_energy": 23.419, "architecture_maturity": 24.076, "architecture_confidence": 53.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.22, "rotation_up": 50.42, "upward_expansion": 35.68, "deceleration": 36.91, "rotation_down": 20.82, "downward_expansion": 19.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.379333, 57.493818, 54.757286, 54.941355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 62.69, "trend_reference": 57.415667, "distance_from_trend": 0.091862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.907756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.241015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096425, "excess_performance": -0.22205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14395781, "relative_activity": 1.034916, "balance": 1.052619, "dry_up": 0.948532, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098954, "annualized_volatility": 0.548607, "from_high_reference": -0.321574, "from_low_reference": 0.470216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.415667, "fair_value_reference": 86.907756, "structural_low": 42.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.020785, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.010612, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.222024, "worst_return": -0.272398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.12015, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.121682, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.296296, "worst_return": -0.256043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032558, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.140942, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.073935, "worst_return": -0.374858, "sufficient": 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13618549.7, "trend": 58.409667, "fair_value": 88.197179, "relative_strength": -21.35646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.4695, "energy": 21.925263, "activity_lines": [ 57.336, 54.486909, 52.844286, 55.039333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.79, "volume": 9678069, "typical_volume": 13571396.4, "trend": 58.227667, "fair_value": 87.848397, "relative_strength": -19.7923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.127466, "energy": 21.047418, "activity_lines": [ 57.456, 55.278, 53.177476, 54.934839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.75, "volume": 11457423, "typical_volume": 13666351.05, "trend": 57.930667, "fair_value": 87.4625, "relative_strength": -22.795375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.159255, "energy": 15.987335, "activity_lines": [ 56.332667, 55.424364, 53.279714, 54.645957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.57, "volume": 17245455, "typical_volume": 13888040.15, "trend": 57.750667, "fair_value": 87.174295, "relative_strength": -17.356873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.336908, "energy": 8.690246, "activity_lines": [ 56.434667, 56.078727, 53.776048, 54.622688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.69, "volume": 14395781, "typical_volume": 13910102.15, "trend": 57.415667, "fair_value": 86.907756, "relative_strength": -12.241015, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.235655, "energy": 23.419336, "activity_lines": [ 58.379333, 57.493818, 54.757286, 54.941355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }