{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e811774c-32c6-43b1-96f7-87c79a822589", "symbol": "PNP", "name": "Pinetree Capital Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.855, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.586, "architecture_energy": 11.068, "architecture_maturity": 17.976, "architecture_confidence": 56.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.57, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 23.12, "deceleration": 31.56, "rotation_down": 32.46, "downward_expansion": 54.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.205333, 9.217091, 9.108238, 9.123376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.2, "trend_reference": 9.254333, "distance_from_trend": -0.005871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.4825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.929669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053498, "excess_performance": -0.173919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15142, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.592262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16400, "relative_activity": 1.012346, "balance": 1.592262, "dry_up": 1.239198, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057776, "annualized_volatility": 0.351912, "from_high_reference": -0.369863, "from_low_reference": 0.208936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.254333, "fair_value_reference": 9.4825, "structural_low": 7.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024185, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.016185, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.212766, "worst_return": -0.030172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140777, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.132962, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.27, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.249838, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.240693, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4875, "worst_return": 0.049869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.173252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.174853, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.238342, "worst_return": -0.225728, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-15", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.022177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.265704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048338, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.352265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008621, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.99, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 7010.0, "trend": 3.91, "fair_value": 3.900192, "relative_strength": 10.961379, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.824108, "energy": 12.784372, "activity_lines": [ 9.077333, 8.966909, 8.985286, 9.171527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.55, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 16045.0, "trend": 9.524667, "fair_value": 9.345897, "relative_strength": -23.112103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.828159, "energy": 10.302785, "activity_lines": [ 9.264, 9.079273, 9.028905, 9.169398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.84, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 15940.0, "trend": 9.471333, "fair_value": 9.383397, "relative_strength": -19.247859, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.27844, "energy": 40.713199, "activity_lines": [ 9.489333, 9.236727, 9.102, 9.189742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.95, "volume": 24500, "typical_volume": 16380.0, "trend": 9.393, "fair_value": 9.41609, "relative_strength": -25.519939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.387693, "energy": 23.192181, "activity_lines": [ 9.355333, 9.217091, 9.091095, 9.156108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.0, "volume": 27300, "typical_volume": 17080.0, "trend": 9.314333, "fair_value": 9.449038, "relative_strength": -23.391348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.743429, "energy": 14.738466, "activity_lines": [ 9.246667, 9.202182, 9.089714, 9.130753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.2, "volume": 16400, "typical_volume": 16200.0, "trend": 9.254333, "fair_value": 9.4825, "relative_strength": -22.929669, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.586477, "energy": 11.067549, "activity_lines": [ 9.205333, 9.217091, 9.108238, 9.123376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }